Russian End Game Forecast
Ukrainian Resistance Stronger Than Expected Our most likely secenario of the Russian end game looks more likely following the recent meeting in Istanbul between negotiators from Ukraine and Russia along with news that Russia may move some of its troops…
Russian Sanctions Analysis
The west led by the US has imposed very tough sanctions on Russia. However, one of the key sanctions needs further explanation. Thus, this analysis will focus on the sanctions against the Russian central bank. In short, this is one…
Turkish Dollarlization
Turkey has essentially embraced a dollarlization policy. The reasons for this are both typical and unique. Last week, the Turkey stock exchange was halted. This event had a bit of a lag based on the sliding Turkish Lira and the…
US Election Projections
The race is very close. The current situation is Biden at 224 and Trump at 213. The remaining states that could decide the election are Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10). We…
Market Update: Correct Call & Results
The market rebounded sharply yesterday. Our view prior the the rebound was that the market was extremely oversold and that confidence was building in the market thanks to monetary and fiscal support globally. The SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) gained…
Market Forecast: Rebound
The markets have probably hit bottom after the consistent bad news from the COVID-19 Pandemic. There are two reasons behind our positive market forecast for a rebound in 2021. First, government policies in the major economies have been supportive and…
US FED Decision
The recent policy move by the US Federal Reserve to reduce rates by 0.25 was expected by the market, thus not much surprise. What was interesting about this move was the statement. In short, the FED thinks things are going…
Turkey – US and Northern Syria
The move by US President Trump to pull a small force out of Northern Syria has resulted in lots of backlash in both the US and Europe. In addition, it has probably made several allies in the middle east region…
Market Forecast – Trade War Significant Risk
We maintain the view that this is just the beginning of a trade war between the US and China. Even if it does not actually happen, the rhetoric will get worst over the coming weeks. Thus, we strongly recommend that…