New US Middle East Policy
The US policy in the Middle East will become more anti-Iranian over the next couple of months. The key date here is the Iran Nuclear Deal sign off that Trump will need to make in mid May. Here is a…
Trade War Forecast
Our view regarding the recent escalation of trade tensions is that we are just at the start of the process and that the recent market rally yesterday is premature. Chinese investment of high-tech US companies has been stymied and regulated…
Monetary Policy Forecast
Our monetary policy forecast stays the same. In short, we believe that the FED will raise more times and to a greater degree than the consensus three rate rises forecast. Thus, equity investors should take precautions since we see four…
North Korean Risks
North Korea dramatically escalated tensions by testing a very powerful bomb today. Experts are skeptical that it was a hydrogen bomb. However, it is at least 10x more powerful than anything North Korea had up to this point. The test…
FED Rate and Balance Sheet Forecast
Our forecast has been for the FED to raise rates in June. Although the economic data has been weaker as of late, we are sticking by our forecast. This is in-line with our overall view for 2017 that the FED…
March Rate Hike and Fed Policy
The market now sees 3 rate hikes instead of 2 for for 2017. We have had this position for some time in our previous forecasts. Regarding the pace of rate hikes, it depends on economic growth and inflation. Surveys currently…
Turkish Referendum and Dutch Spat
The tensions between Turkey and the Netherlands has heated up with threats of sanctions. From an investment point of view, it is politically motivated on both sides due to the elections in the Netherlands and the Turkish Referendum. The current…
Global Macro Watch™ – Market Risks
Investor sentiment reached new highs after the Trump speech last week. Instead of putting new money into the market at this stage, we would suggest investors to tread carefully. Over the last couple of months, we have been increasing our…
FED Meeting – What to look for?
The FED meeting today is important for setting up future rate moves. I would pay less attention to the data and more attention to the tone of the language. Regarding the risk of a hike today, it is close to…
Mexican Geo-Political Risk
Having approached the NAFTA issue with very hardball tactics and striking at the sensibilities of the Mexicans with the implementation of the wall along the Mexican border, has increased tensions. The implications of this approach with Mexico are not positive…