FED Outlook 2016
Our forecast for the next US Fed rate rise has been revised to account for the recent macro data. The data has come in weaker than it should to warrant a rate rise in September. Thus, nothing will occur in…
BOE Rate Decision
Rates in the UK were cut to lowest point ever over Brexit concerns. In short, the increased uncertainty over the move to leave the EU has impacted confidence and business investment. This has affected consumer spending, the real estate market,…
Bank of Japan – hold steady for now
New stimulus was announced but waiting to do possibly more at the next meeting in September. In short, they decided to assess their approach, so a cautious approach. The move today is also a recognition that policy might be at…
Turkish Failed Coup and Investment Environment
The failed coup was over before it really started. It looked like a desperate attempt to overthrow the current AKP government. Unlike coups of the past in Turkey, this one did not have the support of the electorate. Firstly, about…
FX Forecast Alert: GBP
Strong Possibility of the Leave Campaign winning. Brexit is clearly more likely to happen. Please see my quick analysis in the previous article. Expectations: GBP to drop to around 1.20 or even less by year end. US Dollar and Japanese…
High Chance UK will Leave EU
The vote is going to be close. During the last few days, the markets and the polls showed the Stay Campaign with a slight edge. Today, I closed out most of my 'risk-on' positions with a profit. It was just…
Brexit Vote Forecast
Our position on Brexit is that it will be very close but will not happen. There are several reasons that we think the vote will swing in favor of staying in the European Union. First of all the issue is…
Oil Prices and Doha Meeting
The Doha Meeting will impact oil prices for 2016. Many analyst are confused at what will transpire at this meeting. There seems to be a weak view building that the meeting will produce some type of agreement but lots…
FED 2016 Rate Forecast
Our forecast for FED rate hikes in 2016 was 2 hikes for 2016. We strongly doubted the then prevailing market view of 3 to 4 hikes. It is now clear that the maximum number of hikes will be 2 at…
Oil Forecast – March 2016
Oil Forecast An oil price recovery is the key to a commodity rebound since oil is priced in dollars and it is an input into commodity production. The continuation of economic stimulus programs in the EU, Japan and China bodes…