Oil Outlook
The bad news for oil keeps piling on. Oil has fallen for three out of the last four weeks and the number of oil rigs in the US according to Baker Hughes keep falling – 10th straight week. Is there…
December FED Hike – what now?
Mixed signals keep on coming from the FED regarding a rate hike. More economists and market participants are now convinced of a December rate hike. Chances of a hike did go up thanks to the recent strong jobs report. However,…
Turkish Election: In-Depth Analysis
The AK Party (AKP) won parliamentary majority in the elections yesterday. With 316 seats out of 550 seats, it means that they do not need to form a coalition government and will be able to carry on as before. The…
Syria: Is a Deal in the Works?
There are strong reasons to think so. The recent deal between Turkey and the EU is related towards finding a solution for Syria. The fight for Aleppo could result in a large wave of migrants (500,000 plus) flowing to Turkey…
Turkish EU Deal is a Game Changer
Just as Turkey seemed to be sliding into escalating violence and chaos, an opportunity arose and President Erdogan agreed to 3 Billion Euro aid package with the EU. The impetus of the deal was the increasing migration mess in Europe…
UK BOE keeps rates on hold – Future?
The labour market is very tight with unemployment at the medium term trend of 5.5%, this is down from over 8% a few years ago. Thus, the job market is back to normal and probably tightening. This would be a…
ECB – Weak Data and German Slowdown
Germany is experiencing a slowdown in exports thanks to weakness in emerging markets, especially China which accounts for 6.5% of German exports. The slowdown in China could be more than is currently in the news and that will affect German…
Japan – BOJ Stimulus is it Yes or No?
The bad news is that growth is slowing for domestic and external reasons. The good news (if you can call it that) is that Japan is not the only large economy caught in a deflationary spiral. Japan grew at 4.5%…
TPP – A Geopolitical Trade Deal for US and Asia
This deal is really about implementing the Asian ‘pivot’ since China is not included purposely. There are 12 countries that represent 40% of world GDP, with the US and Japan being the key ones. All three NAFTA countries (US, Canada…
Brazil – Policy Challenges and Very Negative Outlook
The economy has declined by 2.5 to 3 % of GDP according to most estimates. Next year will also see a decline of over 1% of GDP. The slowdown in China has impacted Brazil and this will continue into the…